Duo master every contingency. But honeymoon will be brief

The pending official emergence of the new top two at the helm of New Zealand’s National government confirms the National Party’s routine boast that it represents the cross section of the nation’s electorate.

The new top team of Bill English and Paula Bennett has been crafted by outgoing premier John Key with the active assent of his leading lieutenants, notably Murray McCully, the foreign minister – strategist.

Paula Bennett who will emerge Monday at the National Party’s caucus-coronation personifies the National Party’s operational formula of being all things to all people.

She is posh and she is working class. She carries one of the most aristocratic of names in the Maori sphere, Bennett.

She is a solo mother whose early career was janitorial, she was a dishwasher for a while, before she segued into the social studies academic world.

She has the essential component for success in politics which is luck having fallen into the aegis of National strongman Murray McCully while working for him in a secretarial role.

Like her pending boss Bill English she is at one and the same time a professional politician or not a career politician which ever way you look at it.

The point being that she is not an immediate candidate for what has now become a bad brand, that of professional politician.

She fits the generational identi-kit being still comfortably in her 40s. She has the experience, having entered parliament in 2005.

Her cabinet career has been characterised by urban social issues portfolios which she has handled with a smiling equanimity in spite of the inevitable incendiary episodes which such roles must traverse.

Geography is always a National Party preoccupation and here again the dream time comes up, well, trumps.

She is from the north. He is from the south.

The honeymoon though will be brief.

The pair must confront a low-level radiation of opposition from Her Majesty's official Opposition.

But their biggest worry will be the more elusive cabal within their own party led by Mrs Judith Collins in the Brutus role.

In a cross-bencher sense they must also confront lurking like a Muldoon-era wraith in his own perennial Shakespearean role the brooding King of Coalition, Winston Peters MP.

Outside parliament and the party structure they must devote a weather eye to the activities of prairie populist Gareth Morgan.

His threat?

Drawing attention to National’s embedded technique of burying the nasty issues under the carpet of face-value prosperity.

Think here of things such as entitlements, national debt, immigration, ........

One could go on.

But let's not spoil that honeymoon.

From the MSCNewsWire reporters' desk | Friday 9 December 2016

Restores National Party traditional era of Farmer- Prime Minister

Bill English will be the first farmer prime minister since Jim Bolger.

In selecting him for the top slot the National Party reinstates and restores a line which gave the appearance of becoming extinct.

Mr English will remain as prime minister at least until after the next general election.

With the Brexit/Trump syndrome in such recent memory the National Party will not make the mistake of assessing Mr English’s electoral popularity or otherwise prior to the 2017 general election on the basis of media opinion or poll samplings.

Mr English’s party branding as a farmer removes him from the now suddenly despised class of professional politician.

It is a breed that has now become especially vulnerable.

Populist, media-friendly, and extremely wealthy gadfly Gareth Morgan hovers in the wings promising to swat the category with the most effective instrument at hand, such as a new political party.

In the event, though Mr English, who is actually of Irish lineage, looks like a farmer and usually sounds like one. But his non-career politician credentials do not stand up to all that much scrutiny.

His time devoted to the family farm in Dipton was fairly brief.

It was sandwiched between Otago University where he earned a degree in commerce and Victoria University (English literature) before he began ascending the politico-administrative ladder back in Wellington as a policy analyst with the Treasury department.

The clue to Mr English’s seamless transition from trusted lieutenant to prime minister is the unqualified and public support from his long time boss, John Key himself.

Mr Key will have run the numbers on Mr English before his surprise announcement of his own resignation as premier.

It is the appointment though of Mr English’s deputy prime minister that will present the clearest view of the National Party line of succession.

The importance of this pick was underlined in the unusual-purpose press conference suddenly called by government transport minister Simon Bridges.

The National Party has a horror of things like primary campaigns and other such public personal preferment promotional devices.

So Mr Bridges had to weigh this up before calling his self-nominating press conference for deputy premier .

It was convened in order to notify the public that his hat was very much in the ring .

He knows that in the deputy premiership resides the post-Bill English leadership of the National Party.

The opening could be next year.

Or it could be much, much later.

Nobody doubts that should Mr English lose the 2017 general election, which seems unlikely, but given Brexit/ Trump, is nonetheless possible, the leadership will fall upon Judith Collins.

Mrs Collins MP shares with the late Margaret Thatcher, another non-career politician, a pre-political profession as a tax lawyer.

From the MSCNewsWire reporters' desk

Departing Premier Emphasises status as non-professional politician

In the end his trader’s instinct told him that the market for John Key futures had reached its zenith and that it was thus time to quit the position.

It was John Key’s good luck to take up New Zealand’s portfolio of prime minister at the precise time that a baby-boomer backbone electorate tired of an extended doctrinal politics and instead required the stability needed to catapult them into an easy retirement.

John Key anticipated by a decade the dismay with professional politicians that is so evident today and he now brought to the job a solid earlier life as an international investment banker.

In the most effective National Party style he was also an outsider who inserted himself onto the inside track of the nation’s natural party of government.

From an everyday working class background his aw shucks everyman manner plus matching quizzical grin and horrible New Zealand accent were all genuine.

He brought to his decade at the top the professional banker’s ability to take his successes with equanimity and similarly his pratfalls.

He now leaves to his anointed successor finance minister Bill English the interrelated boiling pots of expensive urban housing and immigration.

His centrist instincts made him reluctant to introduce a capital gains tax to cool down the domestic property market. Similarly his businessman background meant he was reluctant to cap immigration which he saw as a priority for economic growth rather than petrol on the fire of the nation’s perennial property Klondike.

He was the first New Zealand leader to get on buddy terms with a United States president and nobody doubts that more golf games will soon be launched from his and similarly retiring president Obama’s Hawaii holiday homes.

The blots on his  premiership are mostly made up of the bizarre.

There was the case of the Auckland café meeting photo-op in which coalition boondoggling was revealed by a hidden tape recorder lurking unseen near the tea pot. This incident then became compounded when enforcement authorities ostentatiously went after the tapes,

There was the Dot Com affair in which a North European IT entrepreneur was allowed to settle in New Zealand with a view to gingering up the digital scene, only to become the subject of a US extradition warrant.

The subsequent and continuing series of events presented and continues to present a Keystone Kops style of unwitting entertainment to the nation at large.

Then there was John Key’s personal campaign to change the flag. This was the most bizarre of all because it was so obviously bungled in that Mr Key was unable to advance any clear reason why there should be a flag change in the first place.

Such as, for example, the near universal confusion over the look-alike Australian and New Zealand flags.

Not all his positive efforts fell into the public spotlight.

His deft hand on his exclusive right to dispense patronage was one such example. His ability to conceal what he really thought, notably in dealing with only semi-informed questioners, was another.

Third Domino tumbles in wipe-out of political class

The decision by France’s president Francois Hollande not to offer himself for re-election for another five year term brings to an end the heyday of client-politics in the western alliance.

Known in France simply as “clientelism” the process is borrowed from industrial consumer merchandising.

It amounts to identifying numerous sector or niche markets. Then tailoring a special approach to each in order to create the desired mass market, in this case of votes

Mr Hollande, known in France as the King of Concensus, brought this whole technique to a fine art.

Anything at all would be tossed back and forth, tested, then tossed back and forth again for further consultation.

It was Mr Hollande’s bad luck that he was in the driving seat when France went through its most tumultuous period in the past half century in the form of islamic insurgency.

It was now that Mr Hollande fell back on his consensus technique which took the form of testing the reaction of his sprawling left constituency to sweeping aside France’s exaggerated code of rights in order to implement the state of the emergency that the situation required.

As was his custom, Mr Hollande sought out acceptable displacement activities such as leading parades to commemorate the slain in these atrocities.

He immersed himself in the Paris climate conference. At any other time France’s ultra-politicised politico-professional liberals would have trumpeted his presence at the high altar of the political class as an example of his mastery of statesmanship.

Instead his absorption by the liberal ritual was construed as still another example of Mr Hollande’s reluctance to bite any bullet for fear of losing votes.

Mr Hollande is a photo-fit of the political class. He started at one of France’s political versions of West Point. In his case ENA, and then zig-zagged his way forward, his pace accelerating during his patronage under the aegis of the regal Francois Mitterand.

Cruelly, and in the Latin tradition, everyone, and from all his niche markets, now has their boot into the hapless outgoing president.

The most vicious kicks in the guts are from his own former proteges whose careers he had so assiduously nurtured in the tradition of the French political class.

Celui qui essaie d'avoir des amis avec tout le monde n'a pas d'amis.

He who tries to be friends with everyone has no friends

From the MSCNewsWire reporters' desk - Friday 2 December 206

Earlier MSC article: The end of the Politically Correct

Trade Minister Todd McClay today published a summary of what New Zealand businesses think about Brexit and the impact they believe it could have on trade with the United Kingdom – New Zealand’s fifth largest trading partner.

This follows a public consultation held earlier in the year to better understand the position of New Zealand exporters and investors into the UK market.

A total of 18 submissions were received, with businesses sighting a combination of potential opportunities and challenges from the United Kingdom’s decision to separate from the European Union.

“Understanding the views of New Zealand businesses is fundamental to ensuring that the Government focuses on the areas that count for our exporters,” says Mr McClay.

Some businesses thought the UK might move towards a more open market and indicated that this could boost trade. Several companies emphasised the importance of the UK and the EU respecting their WTO commitments.

Conversely, a number of submitters expressed the view that the UK may adopt a move towards greater protectionism.

“Specifically, some businesses saw an opportunity for the UK to streamline standards and compliance, which would impact positively on trade,” says Mr McClay.

“Last month, I established a trade policy dialogue with UK, laying the foundations for a more formal trading relationship with the UK once it is in a position to negotiate independently of the European Union.

“Yesterday, in London, I met with Alok Sharma, the UK Minister for Asia and the Pacific and reiterated New Zealand’s intention to work with the UK to preserve and enhance our important and longstanding trade relationship.

“I have had similar conversations with UK Trade Minister, Liam Fox, and am grateful for the assurances that New Zealand’s trade interests will be protected in this changing environment.

“This latest feedback from New Zealand businesses will help to ensure that we safeguard New Zealand’s interests as this process unfolds,” says Mr McClay.

Wellington, Nov 29 (Petra) -- His Majesty King Abdullah II held talks on Tuesday with Prime Minister of New Zealand, John Key, on ways to advance bilateral ties in the economic, trade and defence fields.

The talks, held at the Parliament in Wellington, also dealt with the two countries' efforts to expand cooperation and the prospect of Jordan benefiting from New Zealand's expertise in agriculture, renewable energy, education and other sectors.

Further, both sides agreed to stimulate the private sector in both countries to exchange visits to explore investment opportunities in the different sectors.

In their discussion of efforts to combat terrorism, King Abdullah reiterated Jordan's call for a holistic strategy to address this menace that targets global security and stability.

On Syria, the King said efforts should be ramped up to reach a political solution to the Syrian crisis inclusive of all components of the Syrian people.

Talks also highlighted the burdens shouldered by Jordan as a result of hosting a large number of Syrian refugees. The King called on the global community to assume its responsibility toward Jordan and the other refugee-host countries.

The two sides spoke about efforts to achieve peace between Palestinians and Israelis, and agreed on the need to exert more efforts to revive peace talks based on the two-state solution and the international legitimacy resolutions.

They also spoke about the situation in Iraq, particularly after the offensive in Mosul, stressing their support of the government to achieve stability with the participation of all segments of the Iraqi people.

The New Zealand premier commended Jordan's role in achieving security and stability in the region and beyond. He said many world leaders he met had praised King Abdullah's wisdom in dealing with global and regional issues.

The prime minister noted Jordan's stance against terrorism and extremism, and said his country viewed the King's visit as an opportunity to further enhance relations.

Also in Wellington, the King visited Weta Digital visual effects company and toured the facilities and state-of-the-art equipment used in movie making.

King Abdullah called for using Jordan's natural attractions, such as Wadi Rum and Petra, in the film industry, referring to the many international movies that were filmed in the country.

The psychology behind voting: What makes you tick.   As Americans prepared for an unprecedented election and Brits continue to reel from the Brexit fallout, Joanne Black looked at the psychology and genetics of how we vote in a recent edition of The Listener.

Entertainment, puzzlement call it what you may but this latest round of presidential elections in the US have transfomed  politics into a form of entertainment no matter the seriousness of the outcome.

Continue to the full article

The UK and Brexit then the US and Trumplections  - what is happening in the political arena?  So will the coming months see a change inhow the election message is delivered to the voters in New Zealand for the 2017 elections? 

Is  MMP strong enough to weed out the Trumps of this world?

Of course time will duly deliver the answers but meanwhile ahead is an  interesting time of rhetoric, promiseswrapped in appealing packaging, the ridiculous, the practical and  the preposterous, its all part of the game hopefullythe rules will see the country end up with positive governance in place helping to improve productivity and  the lifestyle of all New Zealanders.

Here on To The Beehive we will run as many of the release from across all the competitors.  No starters gun, no umpire, linesme or third referee for that matter, just as it comes.

Releases can be sent to:- This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

New Zealand Party’s forecast based on own pre-election analysis

New Zealand’s ACT Party predicts without qualification that Donald Trump will be the next president of the United States. The political party’s newsletter Free Press states flatly that “Clinton is bombing out.”

The party simultaneously forecasts that the “fallout” from Mr Trump’s election “will be like Brexit.” It will be “terrifying the day before and unnoticed the day after.”

The party’s Trump prediction is based on its own pre-election soundings in the lead up to New Zealand’s own general elections. The party does not amplify this demographic or statistical analysis.

But their prediction is taken to be a comparative one based on a broadly similar anglo-saxon English speaking and ethnic mix.

ACT New Zealand is a free market political party in New Zealand founded in 1993 by Roger Douglas the former finance minister generally credited with converting the economy from a regulated command one to its current enterprise status.

In spite of its Trump prediction the party is pessimistic about his actual effect and value of Trump in office. The party it says has long watched “neophyte” MPs and Ministers,” no matter how successful in their previous lives”, get thoroughly “gazumped” by bureaucrats with "30-40 years’" experience in their area.

This bureaucratic inertia quotient is cited as the reason the party believes that the Trump presidency will in the event be a “fizzer.”. .

From the MSCNewsWire reporters desk  -  Monday 7 November 2016

Tapie Affair Opens Door of Opportunity for Kiwi

A door of opportunity has unexpectedly opened to enable New Zealand prime Minister John Key tomaintain his upward trajectory in the form of becoming managing director of the International Monetary Fund.

The present managing director of the IMF Christine Lagarde (pictured) has become inextricably enmeshed in France’s Tapie Affair and has been ordered to stand trial for her alleged part in it.This coincides with a move to place a non-European official at the helm of the IMF. This originally came about in order to position someone from a BRICs nation at the helm. But nobody has been forthcoming from these nations, possibly because of their objective of becoming independent of it.

Step forward Mr Key who also has the essential background in Wall Street international finance.Earlier Christine Lagarde had been expected in mid 2016 to renew her mandate with the IMF. However she has now become the latest in a long line of high level French officials to have become rolled up in the Tapie Affair.This centres on Bernard Tapie a onetime member of the Mitterand government, a celebrated sportsman and entrepreneur, who had gamed Adidas eventually though having to hand it over to a consortium which included Credit Lyonnais.In the event this group made a substantial profit on the deal, which Tapie now claimed. Amazingly he was successful.The problem was that Credit Lyonnais was now back in public hands. So Mr Tapie’s payout which approximates to $500 million was derived from the pockets of French taxpayers.The other enduring problem in the 20 year affair was that instead of the matter being referred to the courts, it was placed in the hands of private arbitrators.Christine Lagarde was minister of finance at the time and is thus being accused of signing off on the arrangement.Mr Tapie has now been ordered to pay back the money.The IMF stems from Bretton Woods, as does the World Bank. Curiously the IMF acts as a bank. The World Bank, as a fund.The World Bank is traditionally under United States direction. The IMF under European, as a counter balance.Nobody doubts though that White House approval is required for the leadership of both organisations.Mr Key has the required money market experience. He has run a country. He has backed President Obama’s showpiece international thrusts, the TPPA, and the Paris Climate.He is known to be on personal terms with President Obama who will have the ultimate sign-off on the IMF leadership.Politically Mr Key leads a centrist party and long-running government and above all one which features favourably at the top of all the internationally “transparency” tables.

From the MSCNewsWire reporters' desk